Recently released market study: Singapore Freight Transport Report Q2 2011

PRLog (Press Release)– Apr 03, 2011– The Singaporean economy will perform well this year, despite easing back on the exceptionally strong showing achieved in 2010. Some form of cooling off had been on the cards for 2011 given the expected slowdown in the global economy, but BMI's view remains quite bullish. The US and Chinese economies - important drivers of growth in Singapore - will play a more positive rol ferrari e than we had earlier expected. At the end of 2010, we raised our forecast for GDP growth in the US; in China on the other hand, it is possible that the Beijing authorities will tighten monetary policy less than anticipated, meaning that growth there too could end up being stronger than originally projected.

So the picture for Singapore points to fairly vigorous manufacturing and services growth, continuing high employment, and a positive contribution by net exports to GDP, albeit much less so than in 2010. Based on our analysis, BMI forecasts 2011 GDP growth of 5.0% in Singapore (following on from the spectacular 15.0% achieved in 2010 when the country was recovering vigorously from the global recession in the preceding year). The economy will then ease off a little to 3.9% growth in 2012. In the five years to 2015, we expect growth to average 4.3% per annum.

Headline Industry Data

Port of Singapore box handling set to grow 11.8% in 2011 to reach 31.752mn TEUs. In 2010, Singapore handled 28.4mn TEUs, making it the world's number two busiest container terminal after Shanghai.

Another strong year for airfreight volume in 2011: we predict growth of 4.1% to 1.888mn tonnes, following on from the 11.1% surge registered in 2010.

The country's overall trade is forecast to grow by a healthy 6.1% in real terms in 2011.

Key Industry Trends

There was strong growth last year in both passenger traffic (13% to over 42mn) and cargo volume (+11% to 1.81mn tonnes) in Changi Airport, according to the authorities there. It was noted that demand was particularly strong in southeast and northeast Asia, and on the passenger side for budget travel. Changi was ranked as the world's seventh busiest cargo airport in the 12 months to October 2010, according to the latest available figures.

After a five-year run as the world's busiest container port, Singapore has been pushed down into the number two slot. Shanghai, benefiting from China's strong growth and the World Expo trade fair, took over the number one position in 2010, handling 29.05mn TEUs. Singapore saw growth of 9.6% to 28.4mn TEUs. Singapore remains the world's number one bunkering port.

We predict strong growth this year for transport infrastructure activity within Singapore's construction industry. In 2010, there was a contraction due to high base effects and public sector spending restraint. But in 2011, we see transport infrastructure activity levels growing by 15.7%. A big driver here will be public sector investment in the railway sector where the government has announced plans to invest US$44bn in the suburban metro system over the next 10 years.

Key Risks To Outlook

Singapore is likely to hold general elections during the course of this year (they must by law be called before February 2012) and with some signs of a property price 'bubble', it is possible that there could be an economic hard-lading in 2012, representing a downside risk to our forecasts. BMI, however, rates the probability of such a risk very low chevrolet . The country remains politically very stable with the ruling Peoples' Action Party (PAP) expected to retain its large majority, and the government has been working very hard since the recession of 2009 to curb property price inflation. In January 2011, it introduced its fourth package of property price curbs, including increased stamp duties and a lower loan-to-value limit.

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